Understanding Betting Lines

In sports betting the point spread, moneyline, the total, the runline, the puckline and the “odds” are all referred to as the “betting line." The betting line is simply the odds for that particular game, translated into the system being used to determine payouts for that particular bet.

Many companies, called oddsmakers, are hired to make betting lines. Their job is to make a betting line for each game that creates good two-way action. That is, a betting line that gives the sportsbook or casino a winning edge, but one that will be tempting enough to make bettors bet.

Making betting lines is not quite easy. Oddsmakers must take into consideration the participants of the game. One team must be a favored to win, the favorite, and the other most likely to lose, the underdog. This is not easy to decide when dealing with professional teams.

There is a common misconception that betting lines represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is not to evenly split the game result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way, ‘dividing the action’.

Divided action means the sportsbook is ensured a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

The initial betting line created by the oddsmakers is called the opening line, is given out to sportsbooks and casinos. There is a methodology to the creation of opening lines. Firstly, each oddsmaker creates a line on each game based upon his own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" betting line on an upcoming game or event. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Some factors such as key player injuries and player trades will require an adjustment to a team's power rating.

After the game’s power rating based betting line is determined, the oddsmaker will make changes to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Considering that the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. If the public showed heavy betting interest week after week on a one team. and the oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary betting line of -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected bias.

The final phase in making the betting line (for each oddsmaker) is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

An open discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Sports betting lines making is quite a process which may take several hours to make using over 4-5 experienced oddsmakers. Sportsbooks and casinos depend on these guys to provide profitable betting lines.